Australian back-to-school spending is set to rise in 2026, but across a smaller pool of shoppers, finds new research from the Australian Retailers Association (ARA) and Roy Morgan.
According to the data, 21% of respondents aged 18 plus – around 4.5 million Australians – plan to spend on back-to-school purchases, down from around 5.1 million last year.
Despite fewer people spending, total back-to-school outlay is forecast to climb to $2.9 billion, up $200 million year-on-year, driven by higher average spending of $573 per shopper – up $48 (9.1%) on 2025.
ARA CEO Chris Rodwell says the cashflow boost for retailers is welcome, but the lower participation rate points to a worrying pattern.
“Back-to-school is the first major seasonal moment for retail after Boxing Day and peak-season trading,” he says.
“While these are largely essential purchases, they provide important early-year momentum for many retailers.
“At the same time, we are seeing fewer households participating in major retail events in the past year, while those that can afford to spend are spending more. It’s a narrowing market, and it reflects the pressure many families remain under.”
Women continue to drive most back-to-school spending, with 2.6 million women (24%) participating compared with 1.9 million men (18%), though participation has fallen across both groups.
Importantly, around one in two (49%) respondents say they will spend more than last year, while 34% plan to spend less.
Spending is concentrated into higher-ticket purchases, with 44% of surveyed shoppers budgeting more than $500 and 22% planning to spend more than $1000, compared with just 15% planning to spend $1000 or more a year ago.
“With 600,000 fewer Australians able to take part in essential school spending this year, it’s a strong sign some household budgets are still under stress,” says Mr Rodwell.
“Now isn’t the time to add further pressure through interest rate hikes, with consumer demand clearly constrained.”
