New research from CSIRO, Australia’s national science agency, shows Australians’ eating habits are on a downward spiral and without significant intervention the nation will fall dramatically short of its ambitious 2030 health targets.
Findings from the new study, published in the Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health, predict the consumption of discretionary foods to surge, fruit intake will decline, and vegetables will remain well below recommendations over the next five years.
Key findings show:
- Discretionary food consumption (ultra processed foods and sugary drinks) will soar by 18% by 2030
- Fruit consumption will drop by nearly 10%
- Vegetable intake will remain stagnant at well below recommended levels
- Young adults (18-30) are the only age group showing some positive trends, yet still consume excessive amounts of discretionary foods
The research also indicated some concerning trends for older Australians, with those over 71 showing the steepest projected decline in fruit consumption – a 14.7% drop by 2030.
Forecasting diets
CSIRO researchers used predictive modelling techniques to analyse nine years of data from over 275,000 Australian adults to forecast future dietary trends and compare against the national targets.
Dr Gilly Hendrie, Senior CSIRO Research Scientist, said this innovative approach allows researchers to anticipate and address potential public health challenges before they occur, marking a significant advance in preventive health planning.
“Predictive modelling gives us a powerful early warning system,” she said.
“Rather than waiting to see the impact of poor dietary habits, we can now identify concerning trends and intervene before they become major public health issues.”
Poor diet and chronic disease
The findings come as Australia aims to achieve nutrition targets of:
- Two servings of fruit per day
- Five servings of vegetables per day
- Reducing discretionary foods to less than 20 per cent of total energy intake.
The targets are part of Australia’s National Preventive Health Strategy (2021-2030), which identifies poor diet as a key risk factor for chronic diseases, as well as accounting for significant healthcare costs and reduced quality of life.
“The gap between our current dietary trajectory and our national health targets is widening,” said Dr Hendrie.
“We have five years to get back on track with our diets and reverse these concerning trends.”
The Public Health Association of Australia says the data demonstrates the urgent need for the next Federal Government to take action on dietary patterns and diet-related conditions, such as obesity.
“Poor diets, driven largely by the aggressive promotion of unhealthy foods, are one reason why obesity and overweight have recently overtaken tobacco as our biggest preventable cause of disease burden,” said Adjunct Professor Terry Slevin, CEO of the Public Health Association of Australia.
In the lead-up to the Federal Election, the Public Health Association of Australia is calling for all political candidates to commit to comprehensive action, including improving unhealthy food marketing regulation, implementing mandatory Health Star Ratings on packaged foods and funding ongoing public health education campaigns to promote healthy food choices.
