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NEWS RETAIL BRIGHTNESS, BUT CHALLENGES REMAIN Despite the deep recession brought on by Covid-19 restrictions, retail spending has been one of the bright spots in an otherwise difficult year for the Australian economy, according to Deloitte Access Economics. The multinational professional services network says Australian consumer spending on retail grew over calendar year 2020, and that while 2021 is shaping up as an economic recovery year, for those retailers that were ahead of the pack, a transition back to more normal spending behaviour could mean that 2020’s windfalls are temporary. Deloitte Access Economics’ latest quarterly ‘Retail Forecasts’ subscriber report (Q1 2021) found: • Retail spending ended 2020 on a strong note, with volumes surging 6.4 per cent over the year to December quarter. • Retailers are likely to face challenges ahead, with spending slowing in the second half of calendar year 2021, to end 0.4 per cent lower in the year to December quarter 2021. • Those sectors that have benefited the most through Covid-19 lockdown, such as household goods retailing and supermarket spending, are likely to face larger headwinds in 2021 as restrictions ease and borders open. Deloitte partner and Retail Forecasts principal author David Rumbens says the retail sector tackled the Covid-19 crisis and came out on top. “Retail spending recovered strongly in the second half of 2020, more than offsetting the slump in June, to end higher in the year to December 2020,” he said. “And this strong recovery was experienced across much of the sector, with nearly all segments of spend posting year-to gains in the December quarter. Although it was non-food spending that led the way, home-related consumption also remained elevated. “But, as is so often the case with Australian retail, and this is the same for many other national economies too, there are still some challenges ahead. “Our fiscal stimulus tap has been turned down to a drip, meaning less money for households to spend. Luckily, they’re still more likely to feel like spending what there is, given the good news on vaccines and less and less restrictions across activities that drive retail spend.” Unfortunately for many retailers in 2021, says Mr Rumbens, the economic recovery and reopening of industries will more likely be a “headwind than a boon”. “This means more opportunities for non-retail spending, and an increasing shift back towards travel and hospitality over the year,” he said. “A return to ‘normal’ also poses a bigger risk to some retailers who’ve picked up their share of wallet over the past year. This includes household goods retailing, where the durability and one-off nature of the purchase increases the risk of a sharper pullback in spending.” FORMER SMALL BUSINESS MINISTER REPLACES CARNELL The office of the Australian Small Business and Family Enterprise Ombudsman (ASBFEO) has welcomed the appointment of Bruce Billson, who began his five-year term as Ombudsman on 11 March. He replaces inaugural ASBFEO Kate Carnell. Ms Carnell described Mr Billson, the former Small Business Minister, as a champion of the sector. “Having played an integral role in the establishment of the Ombudsman’s office, Mr Billson is well positioned to carry the torch,” she said. “He’s highly regarded by the small business community and I’m confident he’ll be an effective advocate for the sector.” Mr Billson thanked Ms Carnell for her unwavering commitment to the small business sector over the past five years. “Ms Carnell leaves a lasting legacy, as a fierce advocate for Australian small businesses, and a strong foundation to build on,” he said. “The pandemic has been punishing for many of our small and family businesses, which will need a supportive environment to help lead the nation into recovery. “All my efforts will go towards putting the wind in the sails of small business and helping to energise enterprise to Australia’s benefit. “Most importantly, I’ll be focused on ensuring the small business community has the support and confidence they need to survive and thrive well beyond the Covid crisis.” 6 CONVENIENCE WORLD MAR/APR, 2021