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2021 WILL BE A YEAR FOR CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM If we were to be honest about it, most of us welcomed 2021 hoping that it was going to be different to 2020. By ACAPMA CEO Mark McKenzie. M any businesses, particularly those in Victoria, had limped into the last quarter but were rightly enthusiastic about a surprise return to strong trading conditions. Most businesses were stocking up and holiday communities were preparing for a flood of tourists keen to get out and about locally, as a result of having their wings clipped by international travel restrictions. Yet as we watched Sydney’s NYE fireworks on TV, Australia’s most populous city was carefully managing a Covid outbreak and state/territory governments had created mass confusion about constantly changing border restrictions. In addition, the nation’s health professionals and virus experts were warning about the arrival of more infectious variant of Covid-19 in Australia. Australia’s Covid-19 issues, however, paled in comparison with many of our international trading partners and allies. The British government, for example announced a harsh lockdown in the first week of January that is not expected to ease before the end of February 2021. America, on the other hand, reported a daily death toll of over 4000 people during in the first week of 2021. This toll was 30 per cent higher than the number of people killed in the 9/11 terrorist attacks that so outraged all Americans, and indeed the global community, in 2001. But before you all pull down the shutters on your businesses and find a cave to wait out the next 12 months, it is worth remembering that all of us in Australia are in a very different position now when compared with the same time last year. While it is true that we were grappling with major challenges (ie, bushfires, floods and drought) this time last year, we have all benefited by the 2020 experience of living with uncertainty. Not the normal uncertainty that comes with the ‘ebb and flow’ of economic markets, but rather, the unprecedented uncertainty that comes with navigating a course through a global pandemic. As we journey into 2021, there are five important factors that will likely define the business and economic environment in Australia during 2021 – and it is not all bad. 1. Covid-19 will continue to cause economic and social disruption in much of 2021 First, all of us are going to have to learn to live with Covid for at least the next 12 months. While the vaccine is on its way, the five stages of the Australian Government’s recently approved national vaccine roll-out strategy (see Australia's Epidemiology and Covid-19 Vaccine Roadmap (health.gov.au) suggests that the Australian community is unlikely to have the required level of immunity against Covid-19 before the end of 2021. That means that the CovidSafe business practices are here to stay for the foreseeable future. Staff will need to wear masks consistently. All equipment, especially customer facing equipment, will need to be sanitised regularly. Social distancing markers will need to stay in place and customer registration will need to continue for business that provide in-store dining facilities. Given the recent experience of businesses in other customer-facing industries in recent months, it is clearly better to take precautions against infection now as opposed to dealing with the substantial costs of business closure, workplace sanitisation and business recovery after a workplace infection has been identified. 2. Border confusion and inconsistency of restrictions will remain One of the major business and industry complaints of late has rightly been the devastating effect of constantly changing border restrictions – many of which appear to have been advanced opportunistically and without appropriate consideration of the adverse impacts on cross border communities and road freight movement. Border restrictions have also dramatically reduced cross border road travel – particularly domestic tourist travel – which has seriously impacted revenues for businesses operating in regional tourist areas and cross-border regions. The reality, however, is that this issue is unlikely to be resolved anytime soon given that nature of Australia’s Federation Model. Accordingly, we are all going to have to learn how to do business with continued stop/start Border restrictions in 2021. ACAPMA is currently working with other industry bodies and the Council of Small Business Organisations of Australia (COSBOA) to encourage all Australian Governments to adopt consistent thresholds for the implementation of border restrictions and the standardisation of cross-border permits for worker movement. TO PAGE 60 ACAPMA PETROLEUM INDUSTRY REPORT JAN/FEB, 2021 CONVENIENCE WORLD 59